Bacon to become cheaper

hi folks, happy Friday. Today we’re gonna take a look at lean hog futures. H e is the symbol on most platforms, maybe l h, again, lean hogs, depending on what platform, but we’re looking at H E, the front month or the month that we’re going to be focusing on. I know the front month is fab, but we’re going to be looking at the April and May contracts. That give us a little bit more time. But we’re looking at hogs today from both a seasonal and structural perspective. So let’s start with the seasonality aspect. First, if we come over and take a look at our smart market scanner, see we’re approaching a bearish seasonal timeframe that starts around mid Feb. So we’re not quite there yet starts around mid Feb, and ends around the first of March. So it’s a shorter term trade about two weeks 80% win rate average profit is about $750. Now, each point each full point in hogs is $400. So think of that is about two points. So if we’re looking at price today, around 87, a move from 87 to 85. Not that much, it would be about $800. So that is what we’re looking at, we’ve got a little bit of favorable seasonal bias, we want to take a look at that from a more visual perspective. Here we are looking at April hog seasonality. This is roughly where we are right in here, right around here in the beginning of February. But this is that February 15 window that we’re looking at right here. So you can see we really do peak out here, at least based off of the five and 15 year, you can see they both peak out and they trade to the downside. And then that 30 year starts, the 30 year here and pink starts a little bit earlier, right in here. And then it also though, does move down in tandem. So that’s what we like to see is all three these, the 30 year, the 15 year and the five year all pointing lower. So that looks good to us. And the fact that we are approaching this area of structure. So you see on the weekly, we have slow momentum is slowed down a bit. And we’ll like to see us press up a little bit further here into this area, wick out or reject and then we’d be looking for move to the downside. Now seasonality says we’re looking for about two points here or $100. I think next reliable or next, likely potential target could be back down here this area, which would be around 75. So we’re not getting any definitive sales signals. Today we are getting bearish too far to sell signals. And we need a little bit confirmation, we’ve got a trend line here that could serve as support. That would give us plenty of room though to meet the divergence, target area 83. And also that two point seasonal average. So we could see a little bit of support come into play and bounce back higher. If that does not hold then we would look to run it down to this 7574 75 target that I mentioned. So I’m going to be doing a presentation on Saturday, February 5 at 10am where I’m gonna be talking about these exact same concept waiting for the market to come to us waiting for the market to tell us when we’re about to reach a potential turning point. It’s very high probability. It’s one of my favorite strategies if not my favorite strategy to find turning points in all markets and all timeframes. I’m gonna go ahead and link you to this to this page. All you got to do is click the orange button to register and I’ll see you bright and early tomorrow morning.